GTA REALTORS Release November Market Watch Report

  12/5/2018 |   SHARE
Posted in GTA Real Estate by Forest Hill Real Estate CENTRAL| Back to Main Blog Page

TREB News

Toronto Real Estate Board President Garry Bhaura announced the continuation of moderate price growth in November 2018 compared to November 2017. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 2.7 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price was up by 3.5 per cent year-over-year to $788,345.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 6,251 residential transactions through TREB's MLS® System in November 2018. This result was down by 14.7 per cent compared to November 2017, when we saw a temporary upward shift in demand as the market was distorted by the looming OSFI-mandated stress test at the end of last year.

"New listings were actually down more than sales on a year-over-year basis in November.  This suggests that, in many neighbourhoods, competition between buyers may have increased. Relatively tight market conditions over the past few months have provided the foundation for renewed price growth," said Mr. Bhaura.

On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, sales were down by 3.4 per cent compared to October 2018.  The average selling price after preliminary seasonal adjustment was down by 0.8 per cent compared to October 2018.

"Home types with lower average price points have been associated with stronger rates of price growth over the past few months. Given the impact of the OSFI-mandated mortgage stress test and higher borrowing costs on affordability, it makes sense that the condo apartment and semi-detached market segments experienced relatively stronger rates of price growth in November, as market conditions in these segments remained tight or tightened respectively over the past year," said Jason Mercer, TREB's Director of Market Analysis.

Looking at the housing market from a policy perspective, TREB is encouraged with the provincial government's recent announcement and on-going public consultation regarding a housing supply action plan.

"Housing supply remains a key issue in the GTA market. More specifically, an adequate supply and appropriate mix of housing types must be part of the conversation, as has been recognized by the provincial government in their consultation documents.  Transit supportive and gentle density 'missing middle' housing should be a priority.  TREB has commissioned research on these subjects and looks forward to sharing it at our Market Outlook Economic Summit on February 6, 2019, and as part of the provincial government's consultations, when results are available in coming months," said TREB CEO John Di Michele.

"TREB is also encouraged that the provincial government remains committed to public transit expansion.  TREB has long advocated for improvements to the Greater Golden Horseshoe transit and transportation network, and feels the time is right to have a conversation about the level of provincial and municipal responsibility that would be the most efficient arrangement to realize subway expansion sooner in Toronto, and the GTA, as this will impact the housing market," added Mr. Di Michele.

 

Summary of TREB MLS®  Sales and Average Price November 1 - 30, 2018

   
 

2018

2017

 

Sales

Average Price

New Listings

Sales

Average Price

New Listings

City of Toronto ("416")

2,563

842,483

3,892

2,960

803,540

4,863

Rest of GTA ("905")

3,688

750,721

6,642

4,366

732,848

9,397

GTA

6,251

788,345

10,534

7,326

761,410

14,260

 

TREB MLS® Sales & Average Price  By Home Type November 1 - 30, 2018 

 

Sales

Average Price

 

416

905

Total

416

905

Total

             

Detached

705

1,960

2,665

1,301,382

903,517

1,008,768

Yr./Yr. % Change

-12.5%

-14.8%

-14.2%

1.8%

0.8%

1.3%

Semi-Detached

209

412

621

1,060,359

655,504

791,760

Yr./Yr. % Change

-21.4%

-12.5%

-15.7%

17.2%

3.6%

8.3%

Townhouse

263

724

987

739,837

613,846

647,418

Yr./Yr. % Change

-6.1%

-19.6%

-16.4%

-2.9%

4.7%

3.1%

Condo Apartment

1,370

521

1,891

595,678

454,288

556,723

Yr./Yr. % Change

-14.2%

-13.5%

-14.0%

7.0%

9.5%

7.5%

 

November 2018 Year-Over-Year Per Cent Change in the MLS® HPI

 

Composite (All Types)

Single-Family Detached

Single-Family Attached

Townhouse

Apartment

TREB Total

2.73%

-0.28%

1.40%

4.40%

9.35%

Halton Region

1.67%

0.00%

1.47%

4.85%

6.94%

Peel Region

4.22%

3.00%

3.59%

3.04%

9.38%

City of Toronto

6.72%

2.10%

4.51%

6.48%

10.30%

York Region

-3.88%

-5.18%

-4.63%

-0.81%

4.68%

Durham Region

0.73%

0.35%

1.40%

2.56%

2.06%

Orangeville

1.85%

1.97%

1.15%

-

-

South Simcoe County ¹

-2.62%

-2.83%

-0.95%

-

-

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

       

¹ South Simcoe includes Adjala-Tosorontio, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Essa, Innisfil and New Tecumseth

 

 

Annual Summary of TREB MLS® Sales and Average Price

 

Year-to-Date

 

2018

2017

 

Sales

Average Price

New Listings

Sales

Average Price

New Listings

City of Toronto ("416")

28,396

839,180

50,169

33,195

839,753

57,372

Rest of GTA ("905")

45,281

757,884

101,341

54,192

819,942

114,750

GTA

73,677

789,217

151,510

87,387

827,467

172,122

 

 

Annual TREB MLS® Sales & Average Price  By Home Type Year-to-Date 2018

 

Sales

Average Price

 

416

905

Total

416

905

Total

             

Detached

7,566

24,398

31,964

1,328,178

914,863

1,012,696

Yr./Yr. % Change

-19.9%

-23.3%

-22.5%

-6.5%

-8.8%

-7.8%

Semi-Detached

2,454

4,417

6,871

1,004,254

658,444

781,951

Yr./Yr. % Change

-15.5%

-19.9%

-18.4%

1.3%

-2.2%

-0.1%

Townhouse

2,737

9,277

12,014

743,036

607,553

638,419

Yr./Yr. % Change

-16.1%

-15.7%

-15.8%

2.9%

-2.0%

-0.8%

Condo Apartment

15,453

6,218

21,671

593,357

450,426

552,346

Yr./Yr. % Change

-19.8%

-18.0%

-19.3%

8.7%

5.3%

7.8%

 

Seasonally Adjusted TREB MLS® Sales and Average Price ¹

 

Sales

Month-over-Month % Chg.

Average Price

Month-over-Month % Chg.

November '17

8,176

14.3%

$777,036

-1.2%

December '17

8,779

7.4%

$783,611

0.8%

January '18

6,593

-24.9%

$769,509

-1.8%

February '18

6,073

-7.9%

$746,897

-2.9%

March '18

5,741

-5.5%

$752,402

0.7%

April '18

5,669

-1.3%

$752,203

0.0%

May '18

5,870

3.5%

$762,728

1.4%

June '18

6,634

13.0%

$786,914

3.2%

July '18

7,080

6.7%

$808,044

2.7%

August '18

7,137

0.8%

$805,637

-0.3%

September '18

7,000

-1.9%

$802,976

-0.3%

October '18

6,823

-2.5%

$810,881

1.0%

November '18

6,588

-3.4%

$804,725

-0.8%

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board; CREA Seasonal Adjustment

¹ Preliminary seasonal adjustment undertaken by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).  Removing normal seasonal variations allows for more meaningful analysis of monthly changes and underlying trends.

A TREB Primer on Seasonality and Seasonal Adjustment: click here



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